The Leading Power In East Asia Will Be Japan—Not China

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : By 2040, Japan will rise as East Asia’s leading power. This is one of our most controversial forecasts at Geopolitical Futures. Our readers know that GPF is bearish on China. And while some may disagree on that point, they usually see that the reasoning is sound. China will face serious problems in coming years… problems that will strain the Communist Party’s rule. (I write about this topic extensively in This Week in Geopolitics—subscribe here for free.) Japan, though, seems a bridge too far. Its population is less than a tenth of China’s size (and it’s not just aging… it’s shrinking). Japan also has a debt-to-GDP ratio over 229%.
The Market Oracle

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