Weekly Economic Release Summary: Employment Growth In Decline

For months, our interpretation of JOLTS (BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been that employment growth will be slowing. JOLTS again this past week continues to reaffirm the slowing growth forecasts. The graph below shows the general correlation between nonfarm payrolls (red line) and JOLTS (blue Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Employment Growth In Decline

For months, our interpretation of JOLTS (BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been that employment growth will be slowing. JOLTS again this past week continues to reaffirm the slowing growth forecasts. The graph below shows the general correlation between nonfarm payrolls (red line) and JOLTS (blue Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Market Preview: Rate Cut Hangs In the Balance As Second Quarter Earnings Season Arrives

A strong U.S. economy and monetary easing from the Fed — is that too much to ask? That’s precisely what investors demand. But will the Fed oblige ? Should they? If gauging by the fed funds futures market, traders are betting on a 93% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter-point […]

Weekly Market Preview: Rate Cut Hangs In the Balance As Second Quarter Earnings Season Arrives

A strong U.S. economy and monetary easing from the Fed — is that too much to ask? That’s precisely what investors demand. But will the Fed oblige ? Should they? If gauging by the fed funds futures market, traders are betting on a 93% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter-point […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Placing Too Much Emphasis On the Effects of Import Duties

U.S. Treasury revenue growth has continued to accelerate. What portion of this revenue is due to import duties? The graph below shows that the rolling averages (red line) for U.S. Government tax revenues are at a three year high. Year-over-Year Change in US Government Receipts – Monthly (blue line) and Three Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Placing Too Much Emphasis On the Effects of Import Duties

U.S. Treasury revenue growth has continued to accelerate. What portion of this revenue is due to import duties? The graph below shows that the rolling averages (red line) for U.S. Government tax revenues are at a three year high. Year-over-Year Change in US Government Receipts – Monthly (blue line) and Three Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Durable Goods and Recession Signals

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Weekly Economic Release Summary: Durable Goods and Recession Signals

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Weekly Economic Release Summary: Consumer Spending Is Not Strong

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Weekly Economic Release Summary: Consumer Spending Is Not Strong

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Weekly Economic Release Summary: Does The Fed Understand Inflation?

Most inflation forecasts are simply educated guesses. People talk more about things they do not understand. As an example in the Participant’s Views section of the last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes, the word inflation was used 76 times whilst the words “economic activity” was used only 12 times. Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Does The Fed Understand Inflation?

Most inflation forecasts are simply educated guesses. People talk more about things they do not understand. As an example in the Participant’s Views section of the last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes, the word inflation was used 76 times whilst the words “economic activity” was used only 12 times. Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Strange Things Happening

It was another strange week from an economic point of view. It is hard to quantify the economic impacts of tariffs on Mexico – or the banning of cruise ships from Cuba. I know some like to throw dollar signs at each event – but the economy has symbiotic relationships where events can have impacts […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Strange Things Happening

It was another strange week from an economic point of view. It is hard to quantify the economic impacts of tariffs on Mexico – or the banning of cruise ships from Cuba. I know some like to throw dollar signs at each event – but the economy has symbiotic relationships where events can have impacts […]

Weekly Market Preview: Stocks Rocked By Mexican Tariff Threats (BYND, COUP, CRM, DOCU, SFIX, ZM)

President Donald Trump once said trade wars are “ good, and easy to win .” But the stock market and many fund/retirement portfolios are becoming casualties of a war, which investors are asking, “what is it good for?” Corporate CEOs are responding, “absolutely nothing.” Investors were caught off guard Thursday Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Market Preview: Stocks Rocked By Mexican Tariff Threats (BYND, COUP, CRM, DOCU, SFIX, ZM)

President Donald Trump once said trade wars are “ good, and easy to win .” But the stock market and many fund/retirement portfolios are becoming casualties of a war, which investors are asking, “what is it good for?” Corporate CEOs are responding, “absolutely nothing.” Investors were caught off guard Thursday Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Slowing Economy Seen By Two Regional Fed's

This week, our June economic forecast was released which continues to indicate that a slowing economy is in the cards. At the same time 1Q2019 GDP second estimate was released showing GDP grew at a stellar rate of 3.1 % quarter-over-quarter (3.2 % year-over-year). 0.6 % of this 3.1 % growth number is Latest Articles […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Slowing Economy Seen By Two Regional Fed's

This week, our June economic forecast was released which continues to indicate that a slowing economy is in the cards. At the same time 1Q2019 GDP second estimate was released showing GDP grew at a stellar rate of 3.1 % quarter-over-quarter (3.2 % year-over-year). 0.6 % of this 3.1 % growth number is Latest Articles […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Coincident Indicators Show A Slowing Economy

For the last several months, the authors of the Cass Freight Index have  voiced economic concerns : While we are still not ready to turn completely negative in our outlook, we do think it is prudent to become more alert to each additional incoming data point on freight flow volume, and are more cautious today […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Coincident Indicators Show A Slowing Economy

For the last several months, the authors of the Cass Freight Index have  voiced economic concerns : While we are still not ready to turn completely negative in our outlook, we do think it is prudent to become more alert to each additional incoming data point on freight flow volume, and are more cautious today […]

Weekly Market Preview: Five Stocks To Watch For the Coming Week (HD, LOW, TGT, BBY, HPE)

After a three-session rally from Tuesday through Thursday that almost erased the 700+ point decline suffered on Monday, U.S. stocks ended Friday’s session on a downbeat note as reports emerged that trade negotiations between the U.S. and China had reached a stalemate. “Scheduling for the next round of negotiations Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Market Preview: Five Stocks To Watch For the Coming Week (HD, LOW, TGT, BBY, HPE)

After a three-session rally from Tuesday through Thursday that almost erased the 700+ point decline suffered on Monday, U.S. stocks ended Friday’s session on a downbeat note as reports emerged that trade negotiations between the U.S. and China had reached a stalemate. “Scheduling for the next round of negotiations Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Flirting With A Slowly Growing Economy

Sea container imports continue to indicate a weak (but possibly improving) U.S. economy. On the other hand, the rate of growth for export containers improved this month – with year-over-year growth (comparing April 2018 to April 2019) deep in expansion. Export growth generally correlates with the global economy. Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Flirting With A Slowly Growing Economy

Sea container imports continue to indicate a weak (but possibly improving) U.S. economy. On the other hand, the rate of growth for export containers improved this month – with year-over-year growth (comparing April 2018 to April 2019) deep in expansion. Export growth generally correlates with the global economy. Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary – Is Consumer Credit Outstanding A Headwind to Economic Growth?

This was a very light week for economic releases. My deeper look for this week is on consumer credit growth – which was little changed from last month. From my perspective, consumer credit growth is a double-edged sword. Too much credit growth will hurt future economic growth (when the debt is repaid), and too Latest […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary – Is Consumer Credit Outstanding A Headwind to Economic Growth?

This was a very light week for economic releases. My deeper look for this week is on consumer credit growth – which was little changed from last month. From my perspective, consumer credit growth is a double-edged sword. Too much credit growth will hurt future economic growth (when the debt is repaid), and too Latest […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary – Is 1Q2019 Economic Growth Overstated

This week  econintersect.com  posted its May 2019 economic forecast – and its trend has significantly deviated from the GDP trend line. The Federal Reserve thought the economy improved in 1Q2019 evidently ignoring that the GDP internals were weak even though the reported overall number was strong. Based on Real Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary – Is 1Q2019 Economic Growth Overstated

This week  econintersect.com  posted its May 2019 economic forecast – and its trend has significantly deviated from the GDP trend line. The Federal Reserve thought the economy improved in 1Q2019 evidently ignoring that the GDP internals were weak even though the reported overall number was strong. Based on Real Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Jobless Claims Remain Unchanged

New 160 Initial Jobless Claims 160 were released ahead of Thursday s opening bell sandwiched this week between major national employment figures yesterday with ADP s private sector payrolls and tomorrow s non farm payroll report from the U S government Last week we saw a total of Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Jobless Claims Remain Unchanged

New 160 Initial Jobless Claims 160 were released ahead of Thursday s opening bell sandwiched this week between major national employment figures yesterday with ADP s private sector payrolls and tomorrow s non farm payroll report from the U S government Last week we saw a total of Latest Articles in Economy