Weekly Economic Release Summary: Construction Employment Up, Construction Spending Is In Contraction

This was a week of not-so-great news for the economy: inflation-adjusted construction spending down 9.0 % year-over-year. the ISM manufacturing survey is now in contraction layoffs in August highest since 2009 poor BLS jobs report There was some good news also: Hurricane Dorian impact on the USA is Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Construction Employment Up, Construction Spending Is In Contraction

This was a week of not-so-great news for the economy: inflation-adjusted construction spending down 9.0 % year-over-year. the ISM manufacturing survey is now in contraction layoffs in August highest since 2009 poor BLS jobs report There was some good news also: Hurricane Dorian impact on the USA is Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Trump Could Be Right About Recession Talk

Have you been wondering when the next recession will hit? Seems like recession stories appear daily in the media. This should scare the bejesus out of investors who would want to position themselves for a recession. I find this emphasis on recession trash talk interesting. Let me start by saying that currently Latest Articles in […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Trump Could Be Right About Recession Talk

Have you been wondering when the next recession will hit? Seems like recession stories appear daily in the media. This should scare the bejesus out of investors who would want to position themselves for a recession. I find this emphasis on recession trash talk interesting. Let me start by saying that currently Latest Articles in […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Cutting The Federal Funds Rate Will Not Prevent A Recession

The FOMC said in their meeting minutes released this past week: Among those participants who commented on financial stability, most highlighted recent credit market developments, the elevated valuations in some asset markets, and the high level of nonfinancial corporate indebtedness.  Several participants noted Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Cutting The Federal Funds Rate Will Not Prevent A Recession

The FOMC said in their meeting minutes released this past week: Among those participants who commented on financial stability, most highlighted recent credit market developments, the elevated valuations in some asset markets, and the high level of nonfinancial corporate indebtedness.  Several participants noted Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Productivity Is Not What It Is Cracked Up To Be

This past week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released productivity and costs for 2Q2019. The bottom line was that the year-over-year productivity growth slowed. My view of productivity is very different from the headline view. Productivity calculations are complicated –  far too complicated  for Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Productivity Is Not What It Is Cracked Up To Be

This past week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released productivity and costs for 2Q2019. The bottom line was that the year-over-year productivity growth slowed. My view of productivity is very different from the headline view. Productivity calculations are complicated –  far too complicated  for Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Consumer Credit Slowing And It Says Little About The Economy

The relationship of consumer credit to the economy is not well understood. This confusion has many thinking that there is a consumer debt crisis underway. According to  Investopedia : Consumer credit use from month to month  is  closely measured by economists because it  is  considered an indicator of  Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Consumer Credit Slowing And It Says Little About The Economy

The relationship of consumer credit to the economy is not well understood. This confusion has many thinking that there is a consumer debt crisis underway. According to  Investopedia : Consumer credit use from month to month  is  closely measured by economists because it  is  considered an indicator of  Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Summary: Many Sectors Continue to Decline But Residential Housing May Be Improving

What motivated me to analyze and provide commentary on economic releases were the constant and continuous misrepresentation of data by the market pumpers. I tend to be perceived as more negative than others in my analysis as I am not looking only for bright spots in the data. Generally what I continue to see is […]

Weekly Economic Summary: Many Sectors Continue to Decline But Residential Housing May Be Improving

What motivated me to analyze and provide commentary on economic releases were the constant and continuous misrepresentation of data by the market pumpers. I tend to be perceived as more negative than others in my analysis as I am not looking only for bright spots in the data. Generally what I continue to see is […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Industrial Production Seems Posed to Contract

Manufacturing growth has historically been the “canary in the coal mine” for economic trends. The question is what a dead canary means today – because manufacturing is flirting with contraction. One reason to question manufacturing’s canary role is that its contribution to GDP has declined from 14.5 % in 2000 Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Industrial Production Seems Posed to Contract

Manufacturing growth has historically been the “canary in the coal mine” for economic trends. The question is what a dead canary means today – because manufacturing is flirting with contraction. One reason to question manufacturing’s canary role is that its contribution to GDP has declined from 14.5 % in 2000 Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Employment Growth In Decline

For months, our interpretation of JOLTS (BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been that employment growth will be slowing. JOLTS again this past week continues to reaffirm the slowing growth forecasts. The graph below shows the general correlation between nonfarm payrolls (red line) and JOLTS (blue Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Employment Growth In Decline

For months, our interpretation of JOLTS (BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been that employment growth will be slowing. JOLTS again this past week continues to reaffirm the slowing growth forecasts. The graph below shows the general correlation between nonfarm payrolls (red line) and JOLTS (blue Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Placing Too Much Emphasis On the Effects of Import Duties

U.S. Treasury revenue growth has continued to accelerate. What portion of this revenue is due to import duties? The graph below shows that the rolling averages (red line) for U.S. Government tax revenues are at a three year high. Year-over-Year Change in US Government Receipts – Monthly (blue line) and Three Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Placing Too Much Emphasis On the Effects of Import Duties

U.S. Treasury revenue growth has continued to accelerate. What portion of this revenue is due to import duties? The graph below shows that the rolling averages (red line) for U.S. Government tax revenues are at a three year high. Year-over-Year Change in US Government Receipts – Monthly (blue line) and Three Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Durable Goods and Recession Signals

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Weekly Economic Release Summary: Durable Goods and Recession Signals

Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Consumer Spending Is Not Strong

Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Consumer Spending Is Not Strong

Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Does The Fed Understand Inflation?

Most inflation forecasts are simply educated guesses. People talk more about things they do not understand. As an example in the Participant’s Views section of the last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes, the word inflation was used 76 times whilst the words “economic activity” was used only 12 times. Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Does The Fed Understand Inflation?

Most inflation forecasts are simply educated guesses. People talk more about things they do not understand. As an example in the Participant’s Views section of the last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes, the word inflation was used 76 times whilst the words “economic activity” was used only 12 times. Latest Articles in Economy

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Strange Things Happening

It was another strange week from an economic point of view. It is hard to quantify the economic impacts of tariffs on Mexico – or the banning of cruise ships from Cuba. I know some like to throw dollar signs at each event – but the economy has symbiotic relationships where events can have impacts […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Strange Things Happening

It was another strange week from an economic point of view. It is hard to quantify the economic impacts of tariffs on Mexico – or the banning of cruise ships from Cuba. I know some like to throw dollar signs at each event – but the economy has symbiotic relationships where events can have impacts […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Slowing Economy Seen By Two Regional Fed's

This week, our June economic forecast was released which continues to indicate that a slowing economy is in the cards. At the same time 1Q2019 GDP second estimate was released showing GDP grew at a stellar rate of 3.1 % quarter-over-quarter (3.2 % year-over-year). 0.6 % of this 3.1 % growth number is Latest Articles […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Slowing Economy Seen By Two Regional Fed's

This week, our June economic forecast was released which continues to indicate that a slowing economy is in the cards. At the same time 1Q2019 GDP second estimate was released showing GDP grew at a stellar rate of 3.1 % quarter-over-quarter (3.2 % year-over-year). 0.6 % of this 3.1 % growth number is Latest Articles […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Coincident Indicators Show A Slowing Economy

For the last several months, the authors of the Cass Freight Index have  voiced economic concerns : While we are still not ready to turn completely negative in our outlook, we do think it is prudent to become more alert to each additional incoming data point on freight flow volume, and are more cautious today […]

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Coincident Indicators Show A Slowing Economy

For the last several months, the authors of the Cass Freight Index have  voiced economic concerns : While we are still not ready to turn completely negative in our outlook, we do think it is prudent to become more alert to each additional incoming data point on freight flow volume, and are more cautious today […]