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This was a week of not-so-great news for the economy: inflation-adjusted construction spending down 9.0 % year-over-year. the ISM manufacturing survey is now in contraction layoffs in August highest since 2009 poor BLS jobs report There was some good news also: Hurricane Dorian impact on the USA is Latest Articles in Economy

This was a week of not-so-great news for the economy: inflation-adjusted construction spending down 9.0 % year-over-year. the ISM manufacturing survey is now in contraction layoffs in August highest since 2009 poor BLS jobs report There was some good news also: Hurricane Dorian impact on the USA is Latest Articles in Economy

Have you been wondering when the next recession will hit? Seems like recession stories appear daily in the media. This should scare the bejesus out of investors who would want to position themselves for a recession. I find this emphasis on recession trash talk interesting. Let me start by saying that currently Latest Articles in […]

Have you been wondering when the next recession will hit? Seems like recession stories appear daily in the media. This should scare the bejesus out of investors who would want to position themselves for a recession. I find this emphasis on recession trash talk interesting. Let me start by saying that currently Latest Articles in […]

Telegram will release the code required to run a Telegram Open Network (TON) node on September 1, according to individuals close to the project. The news was confirmed by two individuals familiar with the project, an investor and an affiliate with TON labs. There has been a high level of secrecy around the project, and […]

The FOMC said in their meeting minutes released this past week: Among those participants who commented on financial stability, most highlighted recent credit market developments, the elevated valuations in some asset markets, and the high level of nonfinancial corporate indebtedness.  Several participants noted Latest Articles in Economy

The FOMC said in their meeting minutes released this past week: Among those participants who commented on financial stability, most highlighted recent credit market developments, the elevated valuations in some asset markets, and the high level of nonfinancial corporate indebtedness.  Several participants noted Latest Articles in Economy

This past week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released productivity and costs for 2Q2019. The bottom line was that the year-over-year productivity growth slowed. My view of productivity is very different from the headline view. Productivity calculations are complicated –  far too complicated  for Latest Articles in Economy

This past week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released productivity and costs for 2Q2019. The bottom line was that the year-over-year productivity growth slowed. My view of productivity is very different from the headline view. Productivity calculations are complicated –  far too complicated  for Latest Articles in Economy

Cryptocurrency may have been completely unknown for most people around half a decade ago, and most of the banks in the world did not even take it seriously. However, things have changed dramatically over the past few years, and many banks are now considering the possibility of launching their own digital currencies. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) announced its […]

The relationship of consumer credit to the economy is not well understood. This confusion has many thinking that there is a consumer debt crisis underway. According to  Investopedia : Consumer credit use from month to month  is  closely measured by economists because it  is  considered an indicator of  Latest Articles in Economy

The relationship of consumer credit to the economy is not well understood. This confusion has many thinking that there is a consumer debt crisis underway. According to  Investopedia : Consumer credit use from month to month  is  closely measured by economists because it  is  considered an indicator of  Latest Articles in Economy

According to TRON (TRX) founder Justin Sun, the company is planning to launch Version 1.0 of the Sun Network on August 10. The founder took to Twitter to make the revelations, indicating the Sun Network was one of the 100X scalability solutions of TRON. The network is expected to be optimized on September 15. Scalability […]

Manufacturing growth has historically been the “canary in the coal mine” for economic trends. The question is what a dead canary means today – because manufacturing is flirting with contraction. One reason to question manufacturing’s canary role is that its contribution to GDP has declined from 14.5 % in 2000 Latest Articles in Economy

Manufacturing growth has historically been the “canary in the coal mine” for economic trends. The question is what a dead canary means today – because manufacturing is flirting with contraction. One reason to question manufacturing’s canary role is that its contribution to GDP has declined from 14.5 % in 2000 Latest Articles in Economy

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For months, our interpretation of JOLTS (BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been that employment growth will be slowing. JOLTS again this past week continues to reaffirm the slowing growth forecasts. The graph below shows the general correlation between nonfarm payrolls (red line) and JOLTS (blue Latest Articles in Economy

For months, our interpretation of JOLTS (BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been that employment growth will be slowing. JOLTS again this past week continues to reaffirm the slowing growth forecasts. The graph below shows the general correlation between nonfarm payrolls (red line) and JOLTS (blue Latest Articles in Economy

U.S. Treasury revenue growth has continued to accelerate. What portion of this revenue is due to import duties? The graph below shows that the rolling averages (red line) for U.S. Government tax revenues are at a three year high. Year-over-Year Change in US Government Receipts – Monthly (blue line) and Three Latest Articles in Economy

U.S. Treasury revenue growth has continued to accelerate. What portion of this revenue is due to import duties? The graph below shows that the rolling averages (red line) for U.S. Government tax revenues are at a three year high. Year-over-Year Change in US Government Receipts – Monthly (blue line) and Three Latest Articles in Economy

Latest Articles in Economy

Latest Articles in Economy

Latest Articles in Economy

Latest Articles in Economy

Most inflation forecasts are simply educated guesses. People talk more about things they do not understand. As an example in the Participant’s Views section of the last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes, the word inflation was used 76 times whilst the words “economic activity” was used only 12 times. Latest Articles in Economy

Most inflation forecasts are simply educated guesses. People talk more about things they do not understand. As an example in the Participant’s Views section of the last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes, the word inflation was used 76 times whilst the words “economic activity” was used only 12 times. Latest Articles in Economy

It was another strange week from an economic point of view. It is hard to quantify the economic impacts of tariffs on Mexico – or the banning of cruise ships from Cuba. I know some like to throw dollar signs at each event – but the economy has symbiotic relationships where events can have impacts […]

It was another strange week from an economic point of view. It is hard to quantify the economic impacts of tariffs on Mexico – or the banning of cruise ships from Cuba. I know some like to throw dollar signs at each event – but the economy has symbiotic relationships where events can have impacts […]

This week, our June economic forecast was released which continues to indicate that a slowing economy is in the cards. At the same time 1Q2019 GDP second estimate was released showing GDP grew at a stellar rate of 3.1 % quarter-over-quarter (3.2 % year-over-year). 0.6 % of this 3.1 % growth number is Latest Articles […]